tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093560390959788459.post5418104257684893062..comments2024-03-21T09:29:25.220+00:00Comments on The Financial Crimes: How many "partners" do you have?Alexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13775753218753337766noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093560390959788459.post-77550674309528491922009-11-02T21:49:59.077+00:002009-11-02T21:49:59.077+00:00The manufacturers and the aircraft financing banks...The manufacturers and the aircraft financing banks and lessors all have their own estimates of future aircraft demand by aircraft type, so there is a consensus view as to how many need to be built. These might be owned or leased, the airlines and the manufacturers are fairly indifferent to this, but the banks and independent leasing companies will have their own views. If Ryanair are acking down from their expansion plans it is probably because some banks and maybe Boeing are telling them their plans don't stack up at present.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13775753218753337766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093560390959788459.post-88704134181688374202009-11-02T21:06:30.765+00:002009-11-02T21:06:30.765+00:00Very interesting - I'd never heard of GPA, but...Very interesting - I'd never heard of GPA, but I certainly recognise the names involved.<br /><br />Good point about the training/certification/logistics, too - if it's anything like defence then the lifetime maintenance costs are something like 150-200% of the purchase price, and there can be no economies of scale if the fleets are distinct.<br /><br />I suspect the picture for Boeing might be even worse than that - if Ryanair are still talking about leasing, rather than buying, then that would also mean a glut of cheap secondhand planes going to third world markets a few years down the line. In extremis, they wouldn't be able to sell them at all and the Boneyard gets a few more "retirees".<br /><br />Presumably, Boeing would also be concerned about the stability of their customers - flag-carriers will always be bailed out, but nobody would miss Ryanair, and if they went bankrupt that would flood the market with nearly-new planes at dirt-cheap prices.<br /><br />So, yeah, if Boeing's answer is anything other than "jog on!", I'd be very surprised!The King of Wronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04439966612208152425noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093560390959788459.post-7672429620383318302009-11-02T20:18:45.337+00:002009-11-02T20:18:45.337+00:00KofW, you are correct. The truth is there is no p...KofW, you are correct. The truth is there is no partnership. Some firms, particularly those that are partnerships (e.g. lawyers, accountants) can be very irked when other firms say they are in partnership with them.<br /><br />Ryanair's growth plans are to expand into Europe, but that gives them much more complexity and their Irish base/hub will be a problem. Operating between many smaller jurisdictions will give them added complexity.<br /><br />The truth is that whilst manufacturers like to sell planes they know that there is a global limit to demand. Boeing might love to sell 500 planes to Ryanair, but even if Ryanair could raise the finance to do so Boeing know that there is no point in taking a massive cut for volume production because Ryanair wouldn't be able to use all of the planes and would be forced to sell some at discount prices, killing the market for new Boeing planes, so all in all, Ryanairs scope is limited. Aircraft manufacturers have long and global memories and they have seen this all before, particularly from Irish buyers. Google GPA (Guinness Peat Aviation).<br /><br />Furthermore Boeing know that Ryanair will always operate at lowest cost with one plane manufacturer, because all their pilots & mechanics are trained and certified for a single model or family, so this is mostly b/s from O'Leary.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13775753218753337766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6093560390959788459.post-76205662358831912492009-11-02T19:44:37.415+00:002009-11-02T19:44:37.415+00:00Surely Boeing's reputation would be tarnished ...Surely Boeing's reputation would be tarnished by a partnership with Ryan Air?<br /><br />As you suggest, it's far more likely that Ryan Air will stop growing soon no matter what - yesterday's tax hike, and another in 12 months' time, will hit them hard.<br /><br />Of course, now that they've shot their bolt with Boeing, if they really do want planes, let's see how good a negotiating position Airbus thinks they've got after a public spat with the only other supplier in the market...The King of Wronghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04439966612208152425noreply@blogger.com