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Friday, 7 August 2009

When the revolution comes

The first lamppost is reserved for any politician who says that the turnaround is starting because US unemployment is dropping.

The American economy lost 247,000 jobs in July, and slightly surprisingly, the unemployment rate fell slightly, to 9.4%.

The only reason that the unemployment rate declined is 400,000 people (in my estimation that is one in 500 working age Americans) gave up looking for work.

The employment-to-population ratio gives amore accurate picture of the slack in the labour market and the hidden secret in today’s report was that this measure slid to a 25-year low of 59.4% from 59.5% in June and 61.0% at the turn of the year.


It looks like we have our first candidate (from various news sources):

The White House immediately hailed the unexpected data.

"This morning we received additional signs that the worst may be behind us," said President Barack Obama in remarks after the report was released. "We have pulled the financial system back from the brink."


There was a euphoric rise on the release of the numbers because analysts didn't spot that the fall in unemploment was due to the sheer number of people just giving up. But now it seems that there is a growing numbe of analysts subscribing to the more down beat view, according to another pink paper.

For more on US social destitution see Louis Theroux's programme on crystal meth in Fresno.

1 comment:

Demetrius said...

Perhaps he ought to check the latest figures for ground levels in Yellowstone Park before he gets too optimistic.