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Monday, 1 April 2013

You couldn't make it up - well they just did

Imagine you are a climate scientist.  perhaps you are already. You are probably making a pretty penny from the government working up ideas to explain how the tiny heating effect of infra-red absorption by carbon dioxide can lead to Armageddon - mostly, as the current thinking seems to be, through feedback effects rather than from the paltry degree Centigrade which is (a) probably am over-estimate and (b) neither here nor there in the whole scheme of things.

Now as anybody who has modeled anything in the real world, and in particular anything on a large scale with limited inputs (i.,e. in this case the heat from the sun), negative feedbacks are much more likely (e.g. the hotter the earth gets the faster it cools - basic black body radiation: energy flux proportional to T^4).  So it comes as a bit of a difficulty for the warmists when they find that not only is the temperature not racing away to infinity but has in fact been rather flat for the last 10 to 15 years, but worse than that the extent of the Antarctic sea ice is actually increasing:

Quick as a flash they fob us off with the ridiculous idea that the increased ice capo is due to melting. The abstract of a paper produced by a bunch of Dutchmen reads as follows:
Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature. In contrast to Arctic sea ice, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded, with record extent in 2010. This ice expansion has previously been attributed to dynamical atmospheric changes that induce atmospheric cooling. Here we show that accelerated basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is likely to have contributed significantly to sea-ice expansion. Specifically, we present observations indicating that melt water from Antarctica’s ice shelves accumulates in a cool and fresh surface layer that shields the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters that are melting the ice shelves. Simulating these processes in a coupled climate model we find that cool and fresh surface water from ice-shelf melt indeed leads to expanding sea ice in austral autumn and winter. This powerful negative feedback counteracts Southern Hemispheric atmospheric warming. Although changes in atmospheric dynamics most likely govern regional sea-ice trends, our analyses indicate that the overall sea-ice trend is dominated by increased ice-shelf melt. We suggest that cool sea surface temperatures around Antarctica could offset projected snowfall increases in Antarctica, with implications for estimates of future sea-level rise.
Which makes no sense at all.  To claim that ice forms more readily in unsalty water than in salty water is fair enough, but it makes no sense when the extent of the sea ice is greater than before.  Essentially there would be little or no unsalty water to freeze unless the extent of the sea ice was less than before.

You can fool some of the people all of the time, but I'm not falling for that piece of stupidity.

1 comment:

A K Haart said...

"Simulating these processes in a coupled climate model"

Key words in my view. There are serious problems with environmental models and everyone knows it. How they acquired funding is the only mystery.