FTSE 100
Dow Jones

Friday, 18 November 2011

I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it

Let's get a few things straight.  Britain tried the EMU but didn't join the euro because the economic cycles in Germany and the UK are different.  That means that problems in the euro are not really are problem.  We may be in a minority in the EU, but strictly speaking they are problem of the eurozone and the European Central Bank, not the UK.  So when German Finance or Foreign ministers think they can tell the UK that they are not contributing enough to the bailout, they should be looking at their own contribution first.

Having said that the prime minister (I forget his name, bit of a nebbish with a shiny face), hasn't really done much in his discussions with the Bundeskanzlerin.
  1. No big bailout from the Bundesbank or the ECB even though both are flush with spondoolies.
  2. No progress on the Tobin tax.  Britain wants it, Germany rejects it but it looks increasingly like a negotiating gambit to shoehorn the Brits into a place where they don't want to be.
  3. And then there is the issue of an ever tighter European treaty.  Cameron (see I knew I would remember it), knows that he won't get away with a revised treaty without a referendum.  The price this time will likely be his head.  The Germans OTOH are pushing for a big treaty without any right of veto to hold their flaming currency together.
This will run and run.

No comments: