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Wednesday, 22 July 2009

You never had it so good as last year and maybe you never will

According to the BBC, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) sees total UK GDP falling 4.3% in 2009 before growing 1% in 2010 and 1.8% in 2011.

The research body sees income per head - GDP per capita - taking until March 2014 to return to the level it was in the first quarter of 2008.

Except that doesn’t mean you will be as well off. Assume that inflation runs at 2.5% for each of those 6 years and you will be 16% worse off than now.

It would take another 15 years of GDP growth at 1% higher than the rate of inflation to bring us back to the same GDP per capita in real terms, or 2029.

Assuming that this blog is read predominantly by people in the last 55 years of their expected 74 years, nearly 35% of you will die before we get back to the same average prosperity.

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