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Thursday, 3 September 2009

Looks like we missed the boat

The OECD says the German economy will lead growth in the eurozone, but the UK economy would shrink by 4.7% this year, compared with its earlier forecast of a 4.3% contraction.

Remember yesterday's article saying that the forecast for UK GDP growth in 2009 had dropped steadily between April 2008 and July 2009 from +1.7% to -4.3%. Well it has just dropped another 0.4%, which makes 6.4% drop in the forecast in the last 17 months.

The OECD expects both the US and the eurozone to follow Germany, France, Japan and Hong Kong out of recession in the third quarter.

But not the UK. The British economy is likely to still be stagnant by the end of the year, shrinking in the third quarter and registering zero growth in the fourth quarter.

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