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Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Sodium chlorate on the green shoots

There was an interview with Brendan Barber of the TUC on BBC Radio 4 this morning. I wouldn't normaly listen to Mr Barber's views on the economy but he was "aggressively questioned" by the BBC interviewer who wanted to know why he dared not to support the green shoots theory put about by the NIESR. The obvious answer was because they have jobs and survivor bias makes them think the world looks OK, whereas Mr Barber's members are still losing their jobs.

For confirmation of the TUC world view, look no further than the share trades of the senior executives of US corporations. New data shows that they are cashing out of their holdings at a rapid pace.

US government bond yields followed equity prices lower yesterday, confounding analysts who had expected that Treasury rates would rise this week as the federal government auctioned off a record $104bn of debt.

A World Bank report said the global economy would contract 2.9 per cent this year, more than a previous estimate of a 1.7 per cent. A White House spokesman said later in the day that the US unemployment rate was likely to rise to 10 per cent in the next few months.

Maybe they should all be listening to the experts at the NIESR.

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